Sandra daza, general director of Gesvalt, affirms that funds and Socimis will play a significant role in the recovery
“The Spanish and Portuguese markets have been very interesting from the point of view of real estate investment and they will continue to be.. They are good countries to invest in ". That's how clear Sandra Daza has manifested herself, general director of Gesvalt in exclusive statements to Iberian Property, Iberian information and events platform for the real estate sector of Iberinmo Group.
When we have overcome the current situation, the most active investors will be those who lost their opportunity to invest in real estate assets in the recovery period between 2014 and 2018, ensures the Gesvalt board. In the same way, opportunistic investors who left the market between 2017 and 2018, after observing the new opportunities that are appearing.
Likewise, Daza draws attention to investors with strategies core y core +, seeking stable returns on their portfolio. further, there are funds and private investors interested in the segment build to rent. In any case, believes that both funds and Socimis can play a significant role in the recovery of the real estate industry once we return to normality.
Very studied evaluations
We will have to wait to really know the definitive duration of the restrictions to estimate the impact that will occur on the valuations, the yields and the returns. The Bank of Spain has asked companies for a series of modifications in their valuation criteria derived from the current situation. "At Gesvalt we are prudent, we are reviewing the regulator's guidelines and, especially, we are taking into account aspects such as the urgency of each case and we always prioritize the protection and safety of all workers and operators ", assures the general director. On the other hand, “We will have to review all the comparables due to the scarcity of movements both in the offer and in the transactions. We also have to include risk analysis and real estate rating in our valuations. We are already doing it and we are working closely with our clients to understand their situation, in order to provide the most accurate assessments ", Add.
Recovery according to market segments
The speed of recovery will depend on the time it takes to return to normality and the impulse measures that are approved for the industry. Even so, in Gesvalt they are confident that it will be "a quick recovery and that we will return relatively soon to the point we were at". Anyway, warns that the forecasts are not the same for the entire industry and each segment has its own characteristics. Offices, logistics and residential will achieve their recovery in a couple of quarters.
On the other hand, are analyzing the situation of retail, it will take longer to recover. Anyway, the tourism sector is going through a more complicated situation, because it has been the most affected by the health crisis. So, expect it to take between one and two years to return to normal. However, alternative assets are in a totally different situation because they have practically not suffered the effects of the pandemic. Estimates that your recovery will be faster, although there may be a slight impact on income.
One of the keys to reactivating the economy is to invest in assets with a good return on investment and those are the ones that offer security in the medium and long term. further, the impact of pending income should be minimized during the period in which various moratoriums on payments have been guaranteed, especially in the office segments, residential and retail.
Sandra Daza believes that in the event that liquidity in the market increases, could increase demand for assets prime, which could lead to a rise in prices, but it is still too early to ensure that it will be so. "In the coming months, a drop in the prices of newly built homes is not expected. However, Yes, a delay in the launch of new real estate projects is expected. Medium term, nor does he expect a reduction in construction costs due to the current scenario ". The speed of the recovery will depend on the balance between the new supply - since the stoppage of the construction activity only occurred for two weeks - and the demand.
Regarding the measures approved by the Government, considers that some of the decisions are appropriate to get out of the crisis with the least consequences. Regarding the residential sector and small businesses, It is positive to offer liquidity to users and tenants. On the other hand, the tourism industry needs urgent measures and specific lines to mitigate the damage have not yet been launched. Even so, Daza trusts that the Executive will implement all the necessary measures to save a sector, The tourism, with such relevance for the country's economy.